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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 23 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 14 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
79%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
93%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Lorenof · 29 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 24 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
489 picks · 250 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
468 picks · 459 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 960 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
301 picks · 147 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
292 picks · 483 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
291 picks · 487 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 622 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total60% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:9
MOUZ 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
37% · 49 games58% · 206 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMidOne
46% · 286 games50% · 218 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
52% · 128 games51% · 178 games
MarsDaxak
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteryamich
46% · 86 games63% · 133 games
ChenFly
Chen
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
47% · 200 games31% · 14 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Game 2prediction missed26:49
MOUZ 57%Virtus.pro 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 54:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
56% · 66 games46% · 123 games
DawnbreakerDaxak
Dawnbreaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
49% · 105 games45% · 164 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
50% · 114 games51% · 31 game
RazorTimado
Razor
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
52% · 189 games53% · 13 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
52% · 29 games52% · 172 games
DisruptorFly
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct26:22
MOUZ 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallis
60% · 162 games46% · 104 games
AbaddonTimado
Abaddon
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
53% · 89 games44% · 207 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Mars
MarsBOOM
50% · 163 games40% · 90 games
UndyingDaxak
Undying
Chen
ChenSeleri
60% · 112 games45% · 144 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
60% · 38 games42% · 19 games
Spirit BreakerAntares
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 60%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3