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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 59 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 46 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 43 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 36 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 34 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 31 game
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 31 game
65%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 26 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 13 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Daxak · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 13 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 353 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
592 picks · 297 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 546 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
547 picks · 434 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
539 picks · 649 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
503 picks · 300 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
485 picks · 747 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 532 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total88% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:37
MOUZ 74%Virtus.pro 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
50% · 371 game47% · 222 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
52% · 58 games45% · 225 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
48% · 170 games54% · 121 game
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenSeleri
53% · 238 games55% · 86 games
Ancient ApparitionHellscream
Ancient Apparition
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
50% · 100 games48% · 283 games
TuskFly
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed19:34
MOUZ 76%Virtus.pro 24%
The model gave 76% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
56% · 74 games48% · 302 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMidOne
50% · 412 games45% · 226 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
47% · 254 games47% · 230 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
51% · 229 games54% · 130 games
LeshracHellscream
Leshrac
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
50% · 241 game51% · 322 games
TuskFly
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 88%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2