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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 24 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
29%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
35%

Winter Bear

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 661 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
432 picks · 506 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 551 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
365 picks · 186 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
337 picks · 361 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
325 picks · 432 bans
55%
Invoker
Invoker
315 picks · 872 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 611 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:9
MOUZ 64%Winter Bear 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNande
56% · 75 games48% · 253 games
TuskjAMES
Tusk
Doom
DoomTobi
50% · 60 games
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
51% · 45 games
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
57% · 50 games
Lich
LichFly
48% · 23 games
Game 2prediction correct45:23
MOUZ 63%Winter Bear 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNande
50% · 48 games53% · 244 games
GyrocopterjAMES
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
42% · 49 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
57% · 88 games
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
38% · 46 games
Lich
LichFly
47% · 13 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 76%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2