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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 13 games
77%

Yellow Submarine

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 21 game
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
454 picks · 431 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
452 picks · 231 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 948 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 372 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
301 picks · 150 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
288 picks · 659 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
287 picks · 672 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
MOUZ 65%Yellow Submarine 35%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
48% · 177 games55% · 265 games
Templar Assassinbottega
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallis
56% · 235 games50% · 120 games
Lycanlaise
Lycan
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
42% · 218 games54% · 124 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSeleri
49% · 39 games48% · 173 games
SnapfireHellscream
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskyamich
46% · 261 game52% · 248 games
Pugnasayuw
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct34:13
MOUZ 67%Yellow Submarine 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
55% · 10 games51% · 284 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
44% · 132 games52% · 223 games
Muertabottega
Muerta
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
47% · 192 games50% · 86 games
Slardarlaise
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
53% · 185 games50% · 189 games
JakiroHellscream
Jakiro
Tusk
Tuskyamich
50% · 419 games53% · 156 games
Marcisayuw
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2