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European Pro League Season 22 · BO5
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 3:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 25 games
28%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
31%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 12 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 524 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
429 picks · 525 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 572 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
372 picks · 286 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
360 picks · 401 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
342 picks · 170 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 727 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
323 picks · 145 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:23
MOUZ 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
48% · 270 games69% · 19 games
SpectreDaaD-
Spectre
Visage
VisageMikSa`
51% · 54 games51% · 220 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSupream^
46% · 142 games49% · 349 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
46% · 249 games56% · 227 games
LionPablo
Lion
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
52% · 173 games46% · 73 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Game 2prediction correct30:22
MOUZ 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
56% · 198 games39% · 25 games
Phantom AssassinDaaD-
Phantom Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackUlnit
55% · 93 games45% · 84 games
Keeper of the LightStojkov
Keeper of the Light
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
44% · 157 games45% · 163 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
49% · 167 games53% · 255 games
LionPablo
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
53% · 187 games54% · 275 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct34:29
MOUZ 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 50:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
49% · 197 games55% · 161 game
BristlebackDaaD-
Bristleback
Doom
DoomMikSa`
46% · 157 games46% · 123 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Sand King
Sand KingSupream^
54% · 121 game55% · 125 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFly
54% · 83 games46% · 238 games
Dark WillowPablo
Dark Willow
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
52% · 160 games41% · 71 game
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultMOUZ 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3