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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 26 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 25 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 21 game
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 23 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 22 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 21 game
38%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 17 games
53%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 16 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
479 picks · 416 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
436 picks · 571 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 229 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 537 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
423 picks · 499 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 744 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 589 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
360 picks · 416 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total63% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
MOUZ 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLowskill
48% · 166 games49% · 139 games
MedusaRetsu
Medusa
Visage
VisageForce
41% · 89 games55% · 199 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Magnus
MagnusSupream^
52% · 231 game53% · 197 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
43% · 337 games54% · 242 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
50% · 332 games55% · 378 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed9:21
MOUZ 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
50% · 255 games52% · 180 games
MorphlingRetsu
Morphling
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLowskill
33% · 49 games53% · 178 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanForce
51% · 39 games49% · 76 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Lich
LichFly
51% · 118 games51% · 51 game
GrimstrokePablo
Grimstroke
Magnus
Magnusxsvampire
55% · 186 games50% · 162 games
TuskLeBronDota
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed31:27
MOUZ 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 50:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorLowskill
50% · 144 games41% · 54 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Lina
LinaSupream^
45% · 124 games52% · 120 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusForce
54% · 232 games49% · 153 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
57% · 270 games49% · 247 games
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Undying
UndyingFly
51% · 49 games49% · 245 games
LionPablo
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 63%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3