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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
IHC Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 22 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 12 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 11 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Meracle · 9 games
56%

IHC Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
423 · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 698 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 466 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 410 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1212 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:48
Myth Avenue Gaming 48%IHC Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYoungGodLevi
51% · 37 games48% · 105 games
Queen of PainSancity
Queen of Pain
Batrider
Batriderxsilearn
45% · 162 games64% · 17 games
Venomancer423
Venomancer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMeracle
53% · 35 games51% · 203 games
MiranaSe
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorPlayHard
47% · 153 games53% · 62 games
Nyx Assassinace12
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 54%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1