NA we win vs the bug — prediction I2ОК · Dota 2

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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

NA we winloss 0:2

series probability

71%29%

probability at match start · final 0:2

TBthe bugwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NA we win

No games played over 6 months.

the bug

Batrideroften banned

Newsham · 3 games

33%

Centaur Warrunner

iAnnihilate · 2 games

Ogre Magi

empyrean5 · 2 games

50%

Axeoften banned

MTD · 1 game

100%

Drow Rangeroften banned

Boris · 1 game

Gyrocopter

Boris · 1 game

Phoenixoften banned

MTD · 1 game

Riki

MTD · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

623 picks · 404 bans

53%

Rubick

526 picks · 290 bans

50%

Phoenix

484 picks · 581 bans

51%

Tiny

470 picks · 388 bans

49%

Pangolier

427 picks · 602 bans

49%

Puck

345 picks · 982 bans

56%

Tusk

342 picks · 289 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

337 picks · 508 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength53% NA we win

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total71% NA we win

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed5:38

NA we win 59%the bug 41%

The model gave 59% on NA we win — the game was taken by the bug in 28:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo