European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs predictionNNande+4loss 0:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ilbirs eSportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nande+4
Kezoften banned
Nande · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
Bane
Kidaro · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Lich
Kidaro · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Nande · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Rubick
armageddon · 1 game
Ilbirs eSports
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 9 games
Tiny
chempik · 9 games
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Windranger
Ponlo · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
638 picks · 434 bans
Rubick
562 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
486 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
460 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 653 bans
Puck
353 picks · 1024 bans
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Nande+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nande+4 33%Ilbirs eSports 67%
The model gave 67% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 67%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1