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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
80%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
492 picks · 574 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 441 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
453 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
357 picks · 715 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
323 picks · 736 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
322 picks · 502 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 264 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
299 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:22
Natus Vincere Junior 51%1w Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by 1w Team in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
50% · 111 games48% · 192 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Tiny
TinyNiku
52% · 415 games32% · 35 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
55% · 204 games50% · 360 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
52% · 205 games57% · 122 games
Chenkasane
Chen
Pugna
PugnaRiddys
46% · 123 games48% · 349 games
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct21:14
Natus Vincere Junior 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 45:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svengotthejuice
52% · 152 games45% · 125 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Puck
PuckNiku
51% · 195 games50% · 164 games
UrsaMunkushi~
Ursa
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
48% · 158 games51% · 304 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderZayac
45% · 222 games63% · 109 games
Chenkasane
Chen
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
52% · 203 games45% · 228 games
Windrangerswedenstrong
Windranger
Game 3prediction correct30:17
Natus Vincere Junior 56%1w Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 49:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
49% · 125 games46% · 267 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNiku
55% · 232 games46% · 204 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
54% · 289 games47% · 90 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
53% · 180 games44% · 226 games
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Riki
RikiZayac
56% · 78 games50% · 117 games
Elder Titankasane
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3