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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 31 game
65%
Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 28 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
81%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 27 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 21 game
38%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 20 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 17 games
65%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Solo · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
544 picks · 751 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 577 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
499 picks · 620 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
493 picks · 585 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
486 picks · 411 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
454 picks · 989 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
451 picks · 807 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 903 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:25
Natus Vincere Junior 66%9Pandas 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 49:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
44% · 150 games50% · 258 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
48% · 302 games43% · 319 games
TinySerenada
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
52% · 286 games58% · 74 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
56% · 127 games44% · 186 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
56% · 77 games52% · 105 games
PugnaSolo
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct35:13
Natus Vincere Junior 68%9Pandas 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
48% · 254 games48% · 443 games
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Dragon Knight
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
51% · 105 games45% · 228 games
Earth SpiritSerenada
Earth Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
51% · 387 games54% · 308 games
Doomlaise
Doom
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
52% · 138 games48% · 68 games
WarlockSolo
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
49% · 369 games54% · 206 games
Marcilupsione
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2