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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 32 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 30 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 23 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
64%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 20 games
75%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 40 games
53%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 25 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 25 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 22 games
77%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 22 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
492 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
406 picks · 557 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
367 picks · 174 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 538 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
265 picks · 374 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
260 picks · 144 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 513 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 150 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 37%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total64% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:24
Natus Vincere Junior 58%AVULUS 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 51:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
43% · 127 games49% · 163 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
61% · 219 games55% · 308 games
Storm SpiritMo13ei
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
50% · 256 games46% · 79 games
UnderlordXibbe
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
47% · 134 games54% · 146 games
RingmasterFly
Ringmaster
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRiddys
45% · 139 games49% · 179 games
WindrangerdEsire
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct30:12
Natus Vincere Junior 60%AVULUS 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
49% · 387 games52% · 150 games
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
52% · 195 games49% · 322 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
53% · 374 games48% · 419 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
44% · 264 games47% · 213 games
WindrangerdEsire
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
58% · 175 games48% · 291 game
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2