CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DMSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lion
Riddys · 36 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 21 game
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
Snapfire
Daze · 13 games
DMS
Batridersignature
aik · 13 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
Clockwerk
Hduo · 9 games
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 7 games
Dazzlesignature
Daxak · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
338 picks · 443 bans
Snapfire
328 picks · 262 bans
Enchantress
307 picks · 550 bans
Clockwerk
300 picks · 256 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 397 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 463 bans
Jakiro
287 picks · 235 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 399 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:4
Natus Vincere Junior 50%DMS 50%
The model gave 50% on DMS — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusagotthejuice
LunaShigetsu
PuckNiku
Primal Beastmellojul
Pangolierpma
BatriderDaxak
Naga SirenRiddys
Snapfireprblms
Keeper of the LightDaze
OmniknightHduo
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Natus Vincere Junior 50%DMS 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunagotthejuice
Puckmellojul
Broodmotherpma
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Primal BeastNiku
Nature's ProphetDaxak
ClockwerkRiddys
PhoenixHduo
Shadow DemonDaze
Tuskprblms
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2