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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 3:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 3:0
DMSloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 34 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 24 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 18 games
56%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 16 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
prblms · 11 games
64%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Shigetsu · 10 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
prblms · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 448 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 240 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 266 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 414 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 545 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 461 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
271 picks · 389 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
264 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% DMS
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:11
Natus Vincere Junior 54%DMS 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
51% · 94 games45% · 87 games
Medusarincyq
Medusa
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
67% · 68 games47% · 163 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyNiku
49% · 167 games48% · 64 games
Queen of Painmellojul
Queen of Pain
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
49% · 221 game46% · 107 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRiddys
51% · 97 games49% · 226 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct17:15
Natus Vincere Junior 52%DMS 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunagotthejuice
51% · 218 games49% · 165 games
Alchemistrincyq
Alchemist
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
55% · 204 games48% · 414 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Underlord
Underlordpma
53% · 121 game44% · 203 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickDaze
50% · 289 games44% · 107 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRiddys
50% · 247 games55% · 190 games
Naga SirenHduo
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct26:15
Natus Vincere Junior 52%DMS 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunagotthejuice
52% · 245 games37% · 57 games
Broodmotherrincyq
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyNiku
50% · 254 games43% · 309 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Mars
Marspma
52% · 221 game54% · 408 games
BatriderDaxak
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
54% · 220 games58% · 182 games
Naga Sirenprblms
Naga Siren
Abaddon
AbaddonRiddys
47% · 31 game47% · 15 games
LichHduo
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 53%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3