CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Jigglinloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
Lichsignature
Riddys · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
Jigglin
Batridersignature
Lelis · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 8 games
Tusksignature
Se · 8 games
Muerta
Lelis · 6 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Se · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 5 games
Razoroften banned
423 · 5 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
477 picks · 413 bans
Phoenix
454 picks · 554 bans
Batrider
445 picks · 548 bans
Clockwerk
427 picks · 540 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 782 bans
Lion
411 picks · 230 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 441 bans
Magnus
395 picks · 837 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:39
Natus Vincere Junior 61%Jigglin 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Jigglin in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Bloodseeker423
PuckNiku
PangolierCopy
Timbersawpma
PhoenixMinD_ContRoL
Nyx AssassinZayac
BatriderSe
PugnaKaori
ClockwerkLelis
Game 2prediction correct24:35
Natus Vincere Junior 58%Jigglin 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 46:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinggotthejuice
Phantom Assassin423
Dawnbreakerpma
InvokerCopy
TinyNiku
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
Nyx AssassinZayac
PhoenixSe
EnchantressKaori
LionLelis
Game 3prediction correct22:16
Natus Vincere Junior 60%Jigglin 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Phantom Assassin423
Tidehunterpma
PangolierCopy
MagnusNiku
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
RikiZayac
ZeusSe
LichKaori
Shadow ShamanLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3