?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 24 games
58%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 23 games
35%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 21 game
48%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
38%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 15 games
27%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 14 games
36%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
86%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
dEsire · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 540 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
307 picks · 231 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
306 picks · 446 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
301 picks · 269 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
272 picks · 425 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
268 picks · 763 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 458 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
262 picks · 383 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total59% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:10
Natus Vincere Junior 55%Level UP 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudgegotthejuice
49% · 27 games50% · 26 games
Outworld DestroyerPanda
Outworld Destroyer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNiku
46% · 133 games51% · 119 games
Faceless VoidSammyboy
Faceless Void
Meepo
Meepopma
58% · 23 games56% · 129 games
PugnaDelight
Pugna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDaze
45% · 118 games53% · 138 games
Vengeful SpiritTaiga
Vengeful Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRiddys
45% · 111 games
Game 2prediction correct39:39
Natus Vincere Junior 53%Level UP 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 45:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
59% · 165 games46% · 258 games
WindrangerSammyboy
Windranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
43% · 197 games51% · 257 games
Primal BeastPanda
Primal Beast
Magnus
Magnuspma
48% · 197 games51% · 251 game
Nature's ProphetDelight
Nature's Prophet
Techies
TechiesDaze
55% · 219 games51% · 265 games
TinyTaiga
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireRiddys
45% · 253 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 59%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2