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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
pma · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Riddys · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Daze · 4 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
gotthejuice · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
33%

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
38%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Egor · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Egor · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1003 picks · 697 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 953 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
548 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
533 picks · 364 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
526 picks · 393 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1196 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 377 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:23
Natus Vincere Junior 57%MoneyMakers 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
55% · 153 games51% · 84 games
LifestealerLukas
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRi4man
55% · 219 games44% · 112 games
Shadow FiendEgor
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal Beastpma
48% · 326 games51% · 251 game
BeastmasterBb3px
Beastmaster
Techies
TechiesDaze
49% · 102 games47% · 263 games
UndyingCeMaTheSlayeR
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
57% · 412 games44% · 502 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed24:46
Natus Vincere Junior 56%MoneyMakers 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 50:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
50% · 180 games51% · 228 games
Chaos KnightLukas
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
56% · 145 games59% · 58 games
Outworld DestroyerEgor
Outworld Destroyer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRi4man
49% · 161 game44% · 187 games
BroodmotherBb3px
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyDaze
49% · 576 games50% · 196 games
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
53% · 323 games43% · 716 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 59%
Series resultMoneyMakers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2