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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 15 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 13 games
23%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 10 games
30%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 10 games
60%

Monte

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrider
Moonlight · 2 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Infernal · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 437 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
237 picks · 326 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
219 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
219 picks · 320 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
203 picks · 274 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
203 picks · 411 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
203 picks · 182 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
189 picks · 531 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Natus Vincere Junior 58%Monte 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudgegotthejuice
46% · 27 games54% · 180 games
BatriderInfernal
Batrider
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
46% · 87 games50% · 82 games
AlchemistCrystallize
Alchemist
Puck
PuckNiku
49% · 130 games52% · 94 games
Dragon KnightMoonlight
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
52% · 218 games45% · 171 game
PhoenixEcNart
Phoenix
Lich
LichRiddys
55% · 65 games
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Natus Vincere Junior 54%Monte 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirengotthejuice
49% · 75 games56% · 155 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Doom
Doompma
44% · 187 games51% · 97 games
Queen of PainMoonlight
Queen of Pain
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNiku
46% · 110 games50% · 219 games
Death ProphetInfernal
Death Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
51% · 132 games56% · 76 games
Vengeful SpiritEcNart
Vengeful Spirit
Lion
LionRiddys
44% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2