Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 9 games
Mirana
Daze · 8 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
Ri4man · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
gotthejuice · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 5 games
Natus Vincere
Rubick
xsvampire · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
Silencersignature
Malady · 8 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
Mirana
xsvampire · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
Rikioften banned
swedenstrong · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
721 picks · 619 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 524 bans
Doom
505 picks · 981 bans
Beastmaster
503 picks · 1258 bans
Ember Spirit
446 picks · 1123 bans
Pangolier
441 picks · 897 bans
Mirana
419 picks · 222 bans
Enchantress
415 picks · 599 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:18
Natus Vincere Junior 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautgotthejuice
MedusaShigetsu
Timbersawpma
Ogre MagiMalik
Queen of PainRi4man
Ember Spiritmellojul
BatriderDaze
Techiesxsvampire
LichRiddys
VenomancerMalady
Game 2prediction missed43:9
Natus Vincere Junior 38%Natus Vincere 62%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doompma
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Slarkgotthejuice
BeastmasterMalik
Storm SpiritRi4man
Ember Spiritmellojul
MiranaRiddys
PugnaMalady
BatriderDaze
Techiesxsvampire
Game 3prediction correct36:30
Natus Vincere Junior 36%Natus Vincere 64%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekergotthejuice
DoomMalik
Templar AssassinRi4man
Windrangermellojul
Dark Seerpma
Void SpiritShigetsu
Spirit BreakerDaze
Shadow Demonxsvampire
TechiesRiddys
ChenMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3