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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 24 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
41%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 730 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
343 picks · 291 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
337 picks · 224 bans
48%
Weaver
Weaver
336 picks · 659 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 378 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 531 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
287 picks · 342 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:26
Natus Vincere Junior 45%Night Pulse 55%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
51% · 152 games54% · 115 games
BrewmasterKami
Brewmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
47% · 187 games48% · 136 games
WeaverV-Tune
Weaver
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNiku
50% · 53 games44% · 67 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Lion
LionRiddys
49% · 177 games48% · 199 games
BatriderJANTER
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey KingDaze
55% · 108 games52% · 160 games
SvenHduo
Sven
Game 2prediction correct15:37
Natus Vincere Junior 46%Night Pulse 54%
The model gave 54% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
48% · 120 games45% · 105 games
MedusaV-Tune
Medusa
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
58% · 163 games63% · 44 games
Sand KingKami
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
49% · 173 games52% · 304 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Rubick
RubickDaze
43% · 341 game53% · 223 games
HoodwinkJANTER
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
39% · 56 games54% · 177 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 54%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2