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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 24 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 16 games
56%

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 22 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 20 games
45%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 18 games
56%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 379 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
393 picks · 447 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
386 picks · 821 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 861 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
363 picks · 755 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 524 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 507 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
337 picks · 253 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total70% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:9
Natus Vincere Junior 37%Night Pulse 63%
The model gave 63% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
46% · 196 games49% · 240 games
WindrangerKami
Windranger
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
47% · 101 game53% · 134 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
46% · 158 games57% · 70 games
ViperTobi
Viper
Rubick
RubickDaze
47% · 219 games50% · 86 games
SniperJANTER
Sniper
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRiddys
49% · 121 game57% · 265 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed37:16
Natus Vincere Junior 39%Night Pulse 61%
The model gave 61% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
47% · 173 games48% · 315 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Mars
Marspma
50% · 160 games51% · 106 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
46% · 205 games48% · 164 games
MiranaTobi
Mirana
Techies
TechiesDaze
48% · 153 games54% · 212 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
47% · 256 games60% · 150 games
MarciJANTER
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2