CCT Series 7 · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 2:3series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Night Pulsewin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lichsignature
Riddys · 30 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 28 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
Lionsignature
Riddys · 25 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 25 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 25 games
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Night Pulse
Muertasignature
dEsire · 18 games
Warlocksignature
Kidaro · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 15 games
Tusksignature
dEsire · 15 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
511 picks · 734 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 801 bans
Clockwerk
486 picks · 484 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 540 bans
Muerta
441 picks · 381 bans
Magnus
432 picks · 1040 bans
Bristleback
409 picks · 939 bans
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 764 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Natus Vincere Junior 57%Night Pulse 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 16:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
LunaKami
Timbersawpma
Night StalkerDavai
TinyNiku
Queen of PainWorick
WarlockRiddys
SilencerKidaro
EarthshakerZayac
ClockwerkdEsire
Game 2prediction missed29:53
Natus Vincere Junior 55%Night Pulse 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 54:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
UrsaKami
TimbersawNiku
PangolierWorick
Beastmasterpma
Night StalkerDavai
ClockwerkZayac
JakiroKidaro
Crystal MaidenRiddys
MiranadEsire
Game 3prediction correct23:21
Natus Vincere Junior 56%Night Pulse 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
TerrorbladeKami
Storm SpiritNiku
PangolierWorick
Dragon Knightpma
AbaddonDavai
VenomancerZayac
MuertadEsire
Crystal MaidenRiddys
WarlockKidaro
Game 4prediction missed29:39
Natus Vincere Junior 53%Night Pulse 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 49:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
SlarkKami
TinyNiku
Dark SeerDavai
Bristlebackpma
PangolierWorick
VenomancerZayac
SilencerKidaro
Crystal MaidenRiddys
ClockwerkdEsire
Game 5prediction missed15:42
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Night Pulse 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Monkey KingKami
GrimstrokeNiku
PangolierWorick
Doompma
EnigmaDavai
Bounty HunterZayac
EarthshakerdEsire
WarlockRiddys
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5