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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 28 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
84%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
89%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 16 games
81%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 27 games
41%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 24 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 14 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 515 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
397 picks · 325 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 383 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 571 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
344 picks · 169 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
336 picks · 424 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 771 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 467 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Natus Vincere Junior 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
51% · 320 games41% · 123 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNiku
53% · 248 games50% · 44 games
Night StalkerNine
Night Stalker
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
59% · 189 games48% · 232 games
PhoenixCeb
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
46% · 104 games50% · 267 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Lich
LichRiddys
54% · 85 games50% · 280 games
ClockwerkxNova
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct31:7
Natus Vincere Junior 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
46% · 329 games52% · 151 game
Lifestealer23savage
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckNiku
53% · 242 games44% · 106 games
SniperNine
Sniper
Brewmaster
Brewmasterpma
54% · 150 games54% · 300 games
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterZayac
39% · 22 games49% · 353 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
49% · 257 games55% · 90 games
Ogre MagixNova
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2