PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 31 game
Lichsignature
Riddys · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 27 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 23 games
Timbersawoften banned
pma · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 16 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
Night Stalkersignature
SSS · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
503 picks · 682 bans
Muerta
477 picks · 408 bans
Clockwerk
468 picks · 568 bans
Batrider
467 picks · 595 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 532 bans
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 798 bans
Magnus
421 picks · 944 bans
Lion
399 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total79% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:12
Natus Vincere Junior 70%One Move 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
SlarkWoE
Bristlebackpma
DawnbreakerSSS
PuckNiku
Ember SpiritDifference
EarthshakerZayac
PhoenixRein
PugnaRiddys
Batridernot me
Game 2prediction missed34:33
Natus Vincere Junior 64%One Move 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by One Move in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealergotthejuice
LinaDifference
InvokerNiku
BristlebackSSS
Phoenixpma
ClinkzWoE
LichRiddys
VenomancerRein
ClockwerkZayac
Marcinot me
Game 3prediction correct22:11
Natus Vincere Junior 66%One Move 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
GyrocopterWoE
Monkey KingNiku
LinaDifference
Magnuspma
Night StalkerSSS
PhoenixRiddys
Elder TitanRein
ClockwerkZayac
Marcinot me
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 79%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3