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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 20 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Niku · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
85%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
45%
Underlord
Underlord
pma · 11 games
55%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 17 games
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 11 games
55%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
586 picks · 292 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 520 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1064 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
345 picks · 179 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
342 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 582 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 246 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:30
Natus Vincere Junior 32%Pipsqueak+4 68%
The model gave 68% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerrubikon155
45% · 103 games49% · 141 game
Nature's Prophetxn丶e
Nature's Prophet
Venomancer
Venomancerkrol9ash
48% · 13 games56% · 5 games
ViperPalantimos
Viper
Slardar
Slardargbc
50% · 91 game55% · 130 games
MarsNande
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGothic-
47% · 13 games65% · 27 games
HuskarEkki
Huskar
Snapfire
SnapfireHyugadoto
44% · 221 game50% · 138 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed29:16
Natus Vincere Junior 33%Pipsqueak+4 67%
The model gave 67% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursarubikon155
50% · 132 games54% · 79 games
Night StalkerPalantimos
Night Stalker
Marci
Marcikrol9ash
47% · 165 games50% · 283 games
MarsNande
Mars
Puck
Puckgbc
47% · 380 games51% · 254 games
Void Spiritxn丶e
Void Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireGothic-
48% · 311 games51% · 309 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorHyugadoto
51% · 223 games51% · 286 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 76%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2