CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quantum Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 20 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 18 games
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Snapfire
Daze · 13 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 12 games
Quantum Team
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Somnia · 4 games
Magnus
kolya_kaBAN68 · 4 games
Dark Willow
Somnia · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Fezor · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
333 picks · 429 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 259 bans
Enchantress
310 picks · 547 bans
Jakiro
301 picks · 243 bans
Clockwerk
291 picks · 243 bans
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 464 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 401 bans
Sand King
277 picks · 785 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Natus Vincere Junior 67%Quantum Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusagotthejuice
Morphlingbashka
Beastmasterpma
Tidehunterkolya_kaBAN68
TimbersawNiku
MagnusRvze
Keeper of the LightDaze
SnapfireSomnia
Naga SirenRiddys
Treant ProtectorFezor
Game 2prediction missed20:34
Natus Vincere Junior 67%Quantum Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
Morphlingbashka
Queen of PainNiku
Templar AssassinRvze
Pangolierpma
Marskolya_kaBAN68
LionRiddys
PhoenixFezor
Shadow DemonDaze
Keeper of the LightSomnia
Game 3prediction correct28:11
Natus Vincere Junior 66%Quantum Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinggotthejuice
Medusabashka
Dark Seerpma
InvokerRvze
Earth SpiritNiku
Marskolya_kaBAN68
Keeper of the LightDaze
PhoenixFezor
ClockwerkRiddys
LionSomnia
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 79%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3