European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 23 games
Tiny
Niku · 16 games
Snapfire
Zayac · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 13 games
Warlock
Riddys · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Niku · 11 games
Doomsignature
gotthejuice · 9 games
Team Lynx
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
689 picks · 331 bans
Disruptor
567 picks · 604 bans
Hoodwink
468 picks · 247 bans
Mars
391 picks · 666 bans
Puck
391 picks · 1126 bans
Tusk
385 picks · 247 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 362 bans
Warlock
338 picks · 152 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
Natus Vincere Junior 47%Team Lynx 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Paingbc
Terrorblade7jesu
Dark Seerkrol9ash
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
GyrocopteronLiTaL
Invokermellojul
TuskGothic-
JakiroHyugadoto
Game 2prediction correct21:26
Natus Vincere Junior 47%Team Lynx 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
Gyrocopter7jesu
Dragon Knightgbc
Pangoliermellojul
Troll WarlordonLiTaL
BeastmasterVladikTheHtiviy
DisruptorHyugadoto
Spirit BreakerGothic-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 52%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2