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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Twisted Mindsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 34 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 32 games
44%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 16 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 14 games
36%

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 17 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pablo · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 15 games
47%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 680 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
412 picks · 193 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 537 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 421 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
348 picks · 566 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
344 picks · 170 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 641 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 834 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:29
Natus Vincere Junior 58%Twisted Minds 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightgotthejuice
50% · 54 games52% · 186 games
Storm SpiritAdzantick
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
47% · 222 games47% · 37 games
Night StalkerStoneBank
Night Stalker
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
52% · 131 game56% · 69 games
UrsaShad
Ursa
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerDaze
46% · 77 games53% · 149 games
HoodwinkPablo
Hoodwink
Lion
LionRiddys
46% · 189 games50% · 232 games
BatriderHandsken
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed22:22
Natus Vincere Junior 59%Twisted Minds 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
55% · 100 games55% · 208 games
Storm SpiritAdzantick
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
41% · 169 games51% · 80 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
53% · 224 games44% · 300 games
TimbersawStoneBank
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickDaze
50% · 276 games50% · 185 games
WeaverPablo
Weaver
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
53% · 108 games47% · 104 games
IoHandsken
Io
Game 3prediction correct35:9
Natus Vincere Junior 56%Twisted Minds 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
50% · 79 games42% · 43 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
47% · 106 games48% · 172 games
Storm SpiritAdzantick
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNiku
45% · 84 games50% · 280 games
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyDaze
52% · 303 games56% · 97 games
WeaverPablo
Weaver
Lion
LionRiddys
47% · 171 game59% · 151 game
EnchantressHandsken
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3