?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 35 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 23 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
59%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 14 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 11 games
82%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 445 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 254 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
304 picks · 259 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 546 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 404 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 462 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
276 picks · 232 bans
43%
Windranger
Windranger
275 picks · 398 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:34
Natus Vincere Junior 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunagotthejuice
53% · 240 games45% · 93 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
54% · 71 game48% · 131 game
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerNiku
52% · 122 games47% · 102 games
Sand KingNoticed
Sand King
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRiddys
58% · 130 games49% · 227 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
45% · 197 games50% · 207 games
Clockwerkaik
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct37:34
Natus Vincere Junior 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:05:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorgotthejuice
41% · 119 games59% · 70 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Dazzle
Dazzlepma
55% · 18 games50% · 101 game
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Huskar
HuskarNiku
51% · 21 game57% · 93 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRiddys
41% · 166 games53% · 175 games
HoodwinkAntares
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskDaze
49% · 136 games52% · 21 game
Lichaik
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 56%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2