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CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 9 games
11%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 9 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 8 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 7 games
14%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 17 games
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 14 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 933 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 416 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 618 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 572 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 941 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 248 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 654 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 443 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 47%
Hero pool strength65% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
Natus Vincere Junior 32%VP.Prodigy 68%
The model gave 68% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaStoneBank
45% · 164 games55% · 222 games
Shadow Fiendcutie
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
Earthshakergbc
49% · 129 games55% · 87 games
Largotakizawa
Largo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
51% · 235 games52% · 305 games
Sand KingKatsura
Sand King
Tiny
TinyGothic-
43% · 349 games47% · 252 games
Marciraregods
Marci
Jakiro
JakiroHyugadoto
48% · 387 games56% · 398 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed29:16
Natus Vincere Junior 35%VP.Prodigy 65%
The model gave 65% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkergbc
42% · 91 game51% · 230 games
PuckKatsura
Puck
Abaddon
AbaddonStoneBank
53% · 415 games57% · 122 games
Templar Assassincutie
Templar Assassin
Razor
Razorkrol9ash
46% · 105 games47% · 205 games
Batridertakizawa
Batrider
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterGothic-
53% · 152 games48% · 237 games
Tinyraregods
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleHyugadoto
53% · 199 games49% · 168 games
SnapfireJANTER
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct13:31
Natus Vincere Junior 35%VP.Prodigy 65%
The model gave 65% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackkrol9ash
53% · 228 games50% · 182 games
Shadow Fiendcutie
Shadow Fiend
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterStoneBank
48% · 303 games46% · 261 game
Timbersawtakizawa
Timbersaw
Pangolier
Pangoliergbc
49% · 279 games44% · 185 games
Void SpiritKatsura
Void Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorHyugadoto
61% · 67 games53% · 207 games
Marciraregods
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGothic-
50% · 221 game48% · 263 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 75%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3