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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
44%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 7 games
86%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 17 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
390 picks · 639 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 604 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
370 picks · 304 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 766 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
350 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
340 picks · 384 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
333 picks · 201 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
Natus Vincere 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuragi
51% · 154 games49% · 204 games
MorphlingMunkushi~
Morphling
Razor
RazorSancity
46% · 96 games52% · 139 games
Dragon KnightCloud
Dragon Knight
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
49% · 116 games54% · 166 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
44% · 224 games53% · 123 games
Nature's Prophetswedenstrong
Nature's Prophet
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMalady
48% · 191 game55% · 149 games
MiranaRESPECT
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed6:33
Natus Vincere 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuragi
46% · 154 games56% · 161 game
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
Faceless Void
Razor
RazorSancity
51% · 118 games49% · 156 games
Dragon KnightCloud
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
48% · 172 games50% · 159 games
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Windranger
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
39% · 217 games53% · 135 games
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
Gyrocopter
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMalady
53% · 151 game54% · 201 game
UndyingRESPECT
Undying
Game 3prediction correct28:15
Natus Vincere 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
50% · 199 games54% · 62 games
LinaChira JUNIOR
Lina
Razor
RazorSancity
49% · 72 games49% · 165 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
56% · 95 games47% · 172 games
Dragon KnightCloud
Dragon Knight
Undying
UndyingMalady
48% · 192 games44% · 151 game
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Skywrath Mage
Lion
LionZayac
53% · 152 games50% · 160 games
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3