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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 19 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 15 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 14 games
79%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 13 games
69%
Sven
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 13 games
69%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 28 games
68%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 23 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 16 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SSS · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
503 picks · 262 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
472 picks · 474 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 977 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
299 picks · 146 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
298 picks · 490 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 507 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 618 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Natus Vincere 65%1w Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 57:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
50% · 187 games53% · 129 games
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Lycan
Lycanpma
49% · 133 games46% · 239 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
51% · 293 games50% · 218 games
EarthshakerSSS
Earthshaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
43% · 191 game52% · 225 games
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
Gyrocopter
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
50% · 207 games55% · 200 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct23:13
Natus Vincere 65%1w Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothergotthejuice
41% · 52 games51% · 305 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
54% · 313 games55% · 272 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
41% · 318 games49% · 137 games
UndyingSSS
Undying
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
48% · 236 games49% · 180 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneZayac
52% · 156 games60% · 181 game
Silencerkasane
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2