BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 18 games
Magnussignature
BOOM · 16 games
Tiny
Copy · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 14 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 12 games
Abaddonsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Ancient Apparition
Garbat1y · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 3 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Magnus
zenica · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
323 picks · 304 bans
Puck
323 picks · 793 bans
Pugna
276 picks · 305 bans
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 751 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
Snapfire
272 picks · 135 bans
Tusk
269 picks · 248 bans
Marci
261 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:11
Natus Vincere 80%Aim Possible 20%
The model gave 80% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
Magnuszenica
Bristlebackpma
Monkey KingNiku
BaneZayac
SilencerRiddys
Game 2prediction correct34:6
Natus Vincere 79%Aim Possible 21%
The model gave 79% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarNiku
Dawnbreakerzenica
Ursagotthejuice
Pangolierpma
DisruptorZayac
DazzleRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 94%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2