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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cyber Goosewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 18 games
72%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 17 games
53%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 11 games
82%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%

Cyber Goose

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
prblms · 7 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 7 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
prblms · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Noticed · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 612 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
474 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 431 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
377 picks · 792 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 524 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
351 picks · 796 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 300 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
328 picks · 373 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 79%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:32
Natus Vincere 52%Cyber Goose 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYuragi
50% · 56 games53% · 263 games
TinyTA2000
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCopy
43% · 415 games47% · 144 games
TimbersawChira JUNIOR
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeBOOM
36% · 48 games63% · 88 games
EnigmaNoticed
Enigma
Marci
MarciAri
48% · 133 games47% · 136 games
Jakiroprblms
Jakiro
Undying
UndyingKaori
51% · 69 games57% · 90 games
Shadow ShamanSolo
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed8:26
Natus Vincere 54%Cyber Goose 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerCopy
49% · 110 games45% · 235 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuragi
45% · 338 games57% · 267 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaBOOM
46% · 186 games60% · 247 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockKaori
49% · 195 games51% · 29 games
DazzleSolo
Dazzle
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
47% · 246 games50% · 297 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Series resultCyber Goose 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2