Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Silencersignature
Solo · 10 games
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 9 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
GeneRaL · 7 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 6 games
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
GeneRaL · 5 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
405 picks · 295 bans
Mars
387 picks · 555 bans
Snapfire
314 picks · 176 bans
Weaver
304 picks · 728 bans
Queen of Pain
300 picks · 360 bans
Kunkka
244 picks · 414 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 320 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 158 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 72%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:23
Natus Vincere 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:55.
Game 2prediction missed33:10
Natus Vincere 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2