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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 4 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 4 games
75%

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 13 games
85%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 11 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
440 picks · 982 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
419 picks · 577 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 705 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 599 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 305 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
300 picks · 267 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 188 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 404 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:12
Natus Vincere 55%EXTREMUM 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
48% · 42 games53% · 49 games
UrsaNefrit
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRAMZES666
63% · 24 games48% · 105 games
MarsShachlo
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerIceberg
50% · 26 games54% · 26 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinRodjER
59% · 91 game50% · 115 games
Death ProphetG
Death Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeALWAYSWANNAFLY
38% · 123 games53% · 11 games
SnapfireChuvash
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Natus Vincere 55%EXTREMUM 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
42% · 48 games51% · 76 games
Wraith KingNefrit
Wraith King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritIceberg
46% · 70 games51% · 138 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordRAMZES666
48% · 43 games59% · 21 game
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
Centaur Warrunner
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinRodjER
56% · 85 games63% · 8 games
SnapfireG
Snapfire
Oracle
OracleALWAYSWANNAFLY
47% · 89 games51% · 92 games
TuskChuvash
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2