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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
swedenstrong · 10 games
20%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Visage
Visagesignature
laise · 9 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 8 games
88%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
swedenstrong · 8 games
13%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 8 games
63%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 349 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 333 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
273 picks · 202 bans
60%
Mirana
Mirana
268 picks · 264 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
197 picks · 146 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
183 picks · 106 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 500 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
172 picks · 467 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:23
Natus Vincere 42%HellRaisers 58%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 29:40.
Game 2prediction correct12:26
Natus Vincere 42%HellRaisers 58%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 58%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2