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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 12 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Sancity · 11 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuragi · 10 games
80%

HULIGANI

Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 22 games
41%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 20 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 16 games
75%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OneJey · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Panto · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
re1bl · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
331 picks · 317 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
326 picks · 378 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 459 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 267 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 448 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 477 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 404 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
Natus Vincere 41%HULIGANI 59%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
51% · 123 games45% · 197 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Sniper
SniperSancity
45% · 93 games53% · 189 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Viper
ViperBOOM
53% · 47 games57% · 54 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
50% · 257 games53% · 119 games
SnapfireOneJey
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
50% · 177 games45% · 138 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct17:30
Natus Vincere 43%HULIGANI 57%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYuragi
55% · 220 games43% · 129 games
Alchemistv1olent-
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
52% · 304 games56% · 100 games
InvokerMirage
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
49% · 92 games50% · 384 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
44% · 161 game49% · 183 games
SnapfireOneJey
Snapfire
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
52% · 272 games49% · 253 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 59%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2