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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Kaori · 11 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 11 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%

HULIGANI

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Panto · 20 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Panto · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 12 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 12 games
42%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 735 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 318 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 704 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
385 picks · 882 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
384 picks · 678 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
382 picks · 1026 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total60% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Natus Vincere 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
51% · 196 games45% · 96 games
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
Phantom Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBOOM
57% · 106 games49% · 175 games
BristlebackMalik
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand KingSancity
47% · 155 games48% · 178 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaKaori
56% · 100 games47% · 137 games
Windrangermrls
Windranger
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
51% · 38 games54% · 9 games
RingmasterRESPECT
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct22:7
Natus Vincere 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
45% · 129 games50% · 161 game
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckSancity
50% · 234 games57% · 139 games
EnigmaMalik
Enigma
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
52% · 168 games44% · 397 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
54% · 217 games66% · 15 games
RingmasterRESPECT
Ringmaster
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKaori
46% · 81 game48% · 117 games
Windrangermrls
Windranger
Game 3prediction correct28:9
Natus Vincere 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusYuragi
48% · 131 game54% · 206 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
53% · 85 games48% · 436 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinySancity
54% · 361 game56% · 195 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
51% · 277 games43% · 113 games
Windrangermrls
Windranger
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
47% · 149 games41% · 53 games
SilencerRESPECT
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 60%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3