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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MODUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 24 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 24 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 21 game
71%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Niku · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
pma · 18 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 16 games
50%

MODUS

Rubick
Rubick
prblms · 16 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 13 games
23%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirele · 12 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
prblms · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 11 games
27%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
elmo^^ · 11 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
prblms · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
638 picks · 440 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
589 picks · 333 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
473 picks · 554 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 659 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 373 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 522 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 404 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 1028 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Natus Vincere 75%MODUS 25%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
51% · 119 games61% · 61 game
Drow Rangerbottega
Drow Ranger
Axe
Axepma
49% · 224 games50% · 261 game
Underlordelmo^^
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireNiku
48% · 265 games54% · 384 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Techies
TechiesRiddys
44% · 133 games50% · 267 games
Rubickprblms
Rubick
Tusk
TuskDaze
47% · 440 games48% · 208 games
Clockwerkkasane
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct31:13
Natus Vincere 74%MODUS 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangergotthejuice
53% · 81 game51% · 228 games
Shadow Fiendbottega
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
53% · 435 games48% · 406 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Axe
Axepma
46% · 261 game52% · 232 games
Batriderelmo^^
Batrider
Techies
TechiesDaze
44% · 97 games46% · 36 games
Earth Spiritprblms
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRiddys
48% · 236 games57% · 208 games
Banekasane
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 90%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2