DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 18 games
Magnussignature
BOOM · 15 games
Tiny
Copy · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 12 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 11 games
Pucksignature
Copy · 11 games
MOUZ
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 12 games
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
Thiolicor · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
294 picks · 718 bans
Shadow Shaman
274 picks · 176 bans
Disruptor
266 picks · 247 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 668 bans
Tusk
250 picks · 247 bans
Pugna
249 picks · 266 bans
Marci
246 picks · 656 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
Natus Vincere 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svengotthejuice
JuggernautCrystallis
InvokerNiku
Queen of PainMidOne
Earthshakerpma
MarsBOOM
HoodwinkZayac
Snapfireyamich
DisruptorRiddys
PugnaSeleri
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Natus Vincere 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
SvenCrystallis
InvokerNiku
BroodmotherMidOne
Marspma
PangolierBOOM
SnapfireZayac
ChenSeleri
Elder TitanRiddys
Hoodwinkyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2