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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Zayac · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 17 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 13 games
69%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 13 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 13 games
69%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 29 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 23 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 19 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
94%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
529 picks · 271 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
484 picks · 493 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
370 picks · 1003 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
330 picks · 378 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
311 picks · 146 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 524 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
306 picks · 150 bans
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
303 picks · 497 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:29
Natus Vincere 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 52:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svengotthejuice
40% · 152 games52% · 166 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
46% · 387 games50% · 178 games
Primal BeastMidOne
Primal Beast
Slardar
Slardarpma
45% · 116 games52% · 176 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenZayac
61% · 162 games55% · 192 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
45% · 229 games53% · 334 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed19:30
Natus Vincere 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
45% · 152 games46% · 48 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
47% · 324 games55% · 212 games
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Nature's Prophet
Undying
Undyingpma
51% · 154 games48% · 98 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Dazzle
DazzleRiddys
50% · 86 games50% · 348 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
53% · 191 game53% · 201 game
DisruptorSeleri
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed4:22
Natus Vincere 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
55% · 184 games59% · 14 games
VenomancerMidOne
Venomancer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
47% · 165 games50% · 222 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNiku
52% · 303 games48% · 146 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Chen
ChenRiddys
58% · 145 games49% · 295 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
43% · 252 games47% · 372 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 65%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3