BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
pma · 18 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 14 games
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 14 games
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 13 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 33 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 28 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 28 games
Pudge
yamich · 23 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
574 picks · 289 bans
Disruptor
509 picks · 514 bans
Puck
381 picks · 1051 bans
Pugna
341 picks · 388 bans
Hoodwink
338 picks · 174 bans
Warlock
338 picks · 156 bans
Mars
334 picks · 573 bans
Tusk
325 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
Natus Vincere 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautgotthejuice
NecrophosMidOne
Bristlebackpma
Troll WarlordCrystallis
HuskarNiku
MarsBOOM
ChenZayac
Bounty Hunteryamich
BaneRiddys
SnapfireSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1