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BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 28 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 21 game
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 57 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 46 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 41 game
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 34 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 32 games
66%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 32 games
66%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 29 games
66%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
577 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
566 picks · 569 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
511 picks · 357 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
499 picks · 602 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 273 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 748 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 496 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total71% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:23
Natus Vincere 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 23:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
49% · 212 games43% · 116 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
59% · 264 games45% · 455 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Puck
PuckNiku
53% · 263 games43% · 193 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
52% · 294 games55% · 201 game
ChenSeleri
Chen
Bane
BaneZayac
58% · 160 games44% · 228 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct29:37
Natus Vincere 38%MOUZ 62%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
48% · 171 game52% · 221 game
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNiku
57% · 144 games46% · 86 games
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Broodmother
Broodmotherpma
56% · 28 games48% · 259 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
43% · 176 games52% · 58 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
53% · 233 games50% · 128 games
DazzleSeleri
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 71%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2