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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 26 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
53%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 65 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 52 games
56%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 33 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 940 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 429 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 646 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 950 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 654 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
381 picks · 233 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total52% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:11
Natus Vincere 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
51% · 330 games51% · 86 games
ViperCrystallis
Viper
Puck
PuckNiku
46% · 489 games50% · 254 games
Monkey KingMidOne
Monkey King
Phoenix
Phoenixpma
49% · 226 games48% · 377 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
50% · 349 games54% · 545 games
JakiroSeleri
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
53% · 389 games48% · 521 game
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1