NAVI 2022 vs NAVI Old · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NAVI Oldwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 6 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 5 games
NAVI Old
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
586 picks · 447 bans
Puck
407 picks · 871 bans
Mars
394 picks · 612 bans
Dragon Knight
377 picks · 487 bans
Snapfire
345 picks · 174 bans
Bane
339 picks · 229 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 590 bans
Dawnbreaker
294 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Natus Vincere 79%NAVI Old 21%
The model gave 79% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by NAVI Old.
Game 2prediction missed
Natus Vincere 79%NAVI Old 21%
The model gave 79% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by NAVI Old.
Game 3prediction correct
Natus Vincere 79%NAVI Old 21%
The model gave 79% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 79%
Series resultNAVI Old 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3