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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARI PARNIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 13 games
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
GeneRaL · 13 games
62%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 12 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 11 games
27%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 9 games
44%

PARI PARNI

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 644 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
458 picks · 436 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
411 picks · 560 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 481 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
399 picks · 646 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 559 bans
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
334 picks · 663 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PARI PARNI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:3
Natus Vincere 70%PARI PARNI 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by PARI PARNI in 51:33.
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Natus Vincere 70%PARI PARNI 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2