BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 24 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
pma · 18 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 16 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 42 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 33 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 29 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 29 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
Tusk
Ekki · 27 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
569 picks · 636 bans
Tusk
506 picks · 332 bans
Dragon Knight
498 picks · 682 bans
Snapfire
473 picks · 179 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 529 bans
Hoodwink
437 picks · 213 bans
Mars
396 picks · 536 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:24
Natus Vincere 71%Pipsqueak+4 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmothergotthejuice
Storm SpiritCopy
TinyNiku
Shadow FiendNande
Bristlebackpma
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Shadow ShamanZayac
EnigmaEkki
DazzleRiddys
Tuskaik
Game 2prediction correct17:27
Natus Vincere 68%Pipsqueak+4 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautgotthejuice
Shadow FiendCopy
InvokerNiku
UnderlordPalantimos
Centaur Warrunnerpma
SlarkNande
WarlockRiddys
Snapfireaik
Bounty HunterZayac
TuskEkki
Game 3prediction correct31:18
Natus Vincere 67%Pipsqueak+4 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
SlarkNande
Tidehunterpma
SniperCopy
KezNiku
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
DisruptorRiddys
Shadow ShamanEkki
Treant ProtectorZayac
Ringmasteraik
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 83%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3