EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Power Rangersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Kezoften banned
Niku · 21 game
Axesignature
pma · 17 games
Hoodwink
Daze · 16 games
Rubick
Daze · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pma · 10 games
Power Rangers
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 39 games
Slardaroften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 29 games
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 27 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 26 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 25 games
Phoenix
Immersion · 21 game
Tusk
Immersion · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
476 picks · 317 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 496 bans
Bane
317 picks · 434 bans
Clockwerk
316 picks · 391 bans
Shadow Fiend
302 picks · 621 bans
Dark Willow
275 picks · 109 bans
Centaur Warrunner
273 picks · 288 bans
Undying
273 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:19
Natus Vincere 84%Power Rangers 16%
The model gave 84% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:09.
Game 2prediction correct38:12
Natus Vincere 72%Power Rangers 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezgotthejuice
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Axepma
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Ember SpiritNiku
LargoAlberkaaa
HoodwinkDaze
Dark WillowZayac
BaneRiddys
MiranaImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 84%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2