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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Iceberg · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
V-Tune · 6 games
83%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 5 games
20%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 1013 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 610 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 192 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
365 picks · 365 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
318 picks · 506 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
309 picks · 680 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
309 picks · 225 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
272 picks · 152 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:9
Natus Vincere 44%PuckChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:22.
Game 2prediction correct13:35
Natus Vincere 44%PuckChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 28:27.
Game 3prediction correct7:29
Natus Vincere 44%PuckChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 35:45.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 56%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3